16 September 2009 – Mr Camille GRAND, Director of the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris and an expert on non-proliferation and disarmament, yesterday addressed members of the Political Committee of the European Security and Defence Assembly.

The Political Committee is continuing its work on nuclear non-proliferation issues with a report entitled “Current developments in nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament” to be submitted to the Assembly at its December Session by Michael HANCOCK MP (United Kingdom, Liberal Group), Rapporteur and Vice-Chairman of the Committee.

The report investigates various aspects of nuclear non-proliferation, focusing in particular on the most critical issues of the day. Presidents Obama and Medvedev are expected to reach agreement on signing a new Strategic Arms Control Treaty (START) at the end of 2009 when the first START treaty concluded in 1991 expires; this should give fresh impetus to pursuing further reductions in the US and Russian nuclear arsenals. The agreement comes at a time when countries like Iran and North Korea are heading in the opposite direction, as they continue to pursue and expand their nuclear programmes in the face of UN sanctions. The report also reviews the current nuclear relations between India and Pakistan. The key focus of this report, however, is an analysis of the major current theories and trends in non proliferation which will provide the basis for a number of recommendations with a view, in particular, to the five-yearly review of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in May 2010.

Mr Camille GRAND stressed that it was more important than ever for progress to be made in the area of non-proliferation and disarmament. The most likely scenario in ten or twenty years’ time was that proliferation would accelerate and the risk of a nuclear weapon being used in a regional conflict or of terrorists acquiring sensitive materials would become ever greater. If the crises in North Korea and Iran were not resolved, proliferation would most likely spread to neighbouring countries. The best-case scenario was that there would be no significant increase in the number of nuclear powers and progress would be made towards disarmament. There would be no security without disarmament and no disarmament without security!

Mr GRAND described the 40-year-old NPT Treaty regime as a “success story”. Today it still appeared to be very robust and comprehensive, with only four countries outside the regime (India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel) and one trouble-maker inside (Iran). But he warned that the lack of clear and lasting solutions to the Iranian proliferation crisis in the months or the year to come could lead to the unravelling of the regime.

He went on to say that the NPT established a link between non-proliferation and disarmament. The question was whether, in order to convince a large number of non-nuclear states to remain firmly committed to non-proliferation, in particular as regards Iran, it would be appropriate for the established nuclear powers to indicate their will to go further down the path of disarmament. It was an important tactical decision that should be made in time for the NPT Review Conference next spring. It was also necessary to rethink the original balance of the NPT Treaty regime (the so-called three pillars system: non-proliferation, disarmament and access to technology).

He criticised the lack of political will to develop and use tougher verification tools. The issue of missile proliferation also needed to be seriously addressed. Finally a way should be found to engage Russia and China in a renewed arms control and non-proliferation agenda so as to re-establish an international consensus to isolate proliferators.